NOAA Increases Hurricane Season Average To Reflect More Storms

MIAMI (CBSMiami) – One day after Colorado State University forecasters released their 2021 hurricane storm predictions, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its averages for the Atlantic hurricane season.

A typical hurricane season has a range of storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes and is often compared to an average season. Starting this year however, those average numbers of storms and hurricanes is increasing.

To calculate the average, the Climate Prediction Center looks at a 30-year period.

Starting in 2021, that period is now 1991-2020. Previously it was 1981-2010.

The new data updates the number of named storms from 12 to 14 and the number of hurricanes from 6 to 7. The average number of major hurricanes (category 3,4,5) remains the same at 3.

These updated averages will now be used to determine above or below average seasons or seasonal forecasts.

"This update allows our meteorologists to make forecasts for the hurricane season with the most relevant climate statistics taken into consideration," said Michael Farrar, director of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

The past 30 years have seen an increase in ocean temperature as well as improved observations such as satellites and hurricane reconnaissance. These are a few of the factors which could be attributed to the increase.

"These updated averages better reflect our collective experience of the past 10 years, which included some very active hurricane seasons," said Matt Rosencrans, seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA will issue its initial seasonal outlook for the 2021 hurricane season in late May.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30.