MIAMI (CBSMiami) – Due to changing atmospheric conditions, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is now forecasting a more active 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

NOAA forecasters issued their latest predictions on Thursday. They predict a 45% chance for an above-normal season and a 20% chance for the season to be below-normal.

NOAA’s updated predictions now list 10 to 17 named storms with 5 to 9 becoming hurricanes. This range is higher than what was predicted in May before the start of the season which was 9 to 12 named storms and 4 to 8 hurricanes.

The current conditions in the Atlantic are quiet but the days are marching closer to the peak of hurricane season which is in September. So we can expect the tropics to become more disturbed in the upcoming weeks and especially now that the El Nino pattern has come to an end. This is the reason why NOAA has increased the probability for above-normal hurricane season.

The absence of El Nino will favor for environmental conditions to be more conducive due to weaker upper-level winds or wind shear. At the same time, sea surface temperatures will become warmer as we get closer to the peak of hurricane season and an enhanced West African Monsoon means more waves moving off the African coast in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

The latest Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast looks a bit more menacing, always remember that preparedness is key and it is never too early to prepare your hurricane survival kit and plans.

Jennifer Correa