MIAMI (CBSMiami) – So, is it coming to South Florida? There’s been lots of interest over the past few days in the forecast for Tropical Storm Karen.

It is currently moving north, expected to stall and then loop back around to the west, toward Florida.

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While these loops in the track are not common, they do occur.

In 2004, Hurricane Jeanne looped well off the east coast of Florida and then headed west making landfall near Palm Beach County.

In the case of Karen, this loop is expected to occur and bring it toward the Bahamas and Florida early next week.

But unlike Dorian, which traveled over the same area and strengthened, conditions are far from favorable for strengthening with Karen.

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Here’s why:

First, Karen is struggling in an environment of shear and some dry air.

If Karen survives the next few days, it is expected to travel into even higher shear and drier air.

Both ingredients would be enough to limit or even weaken a tropical storm, but Karen would also move over cooler than normal water temperatures.

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In the end, if Karen does survive long enough to reach Florida, it will likely be a weak tropical system.

Craig Setzer