MIAMI (CBSMiami) – A tropical wave over the Caribbean remains disorganized and is producing storms over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas.

Tropical formation potential remains low as the disturbance tracks west-northwestward and closer to South Florida the next few days.

Regardless of formation, significant tropical moisture is headed our way. This will lead to a stormy and wet weekend. It is possible that storms will develop overnight and into the early hours on Thursday mainly over the Keys and Florida Straits. Through the rest of the morning hours, storm activity will lift into Miami-Dade and Broward.

A break from the rain is expected from time-to-time tomorrow. However, storm coverage will become more numerous and widespread by Friday and through the weekend.

Since heavy rainfall is expected, flooding will be the main impact on the cities across South Florida. Be prepared for ponding on the roads and flooding in poor drainage and low-lying neighborhoods. With a new moon phase on Friday, tides are expected to be higher than normal, so minor coastal flooding is also possible. As far as rainfall totals, the forecast is ranging between 2 to 3 inches of rain but locally higher amounts can occur throughout this rain event.

The tropical wave will be moving between the Sunshine State and the northern Bahamas this weekend, its exact location and track is still an uncertainty. If the wave is more over Florida, then higher amounts of rainfall is expected but if it stays farther from the coast and over the Bahamas then that may bring rainfall totals down a bit. Either way, a wetter pattern is for certain this weekend. The wave is expected to turn northeastward over the western Atlantic during the weekend and into next week.

Meanwhile, another area in the tropics to watch is still far away from South Florida, located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This tropical wave now has a 70% chance for formation in the next five days.

Jennifer Correa