MIAMI (CBSMiami) – A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean remains disorganized but is producing shower and storm activity over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Virgin Islands today.

There is still a low chance for tropical development in the next five days as the disturbance tracks west-northwestward due to strong upper-level wind shear and over Hispaniola’s higher terrain. The wave is expected to move over Hispaniola on Wednesday producing locally heavy rainfall. Then the tropical wave is expected to reach the Bahamas by Thursday and in this area the chance for development goes up to 10%.

This disturbance is dragging plenty of tropical moisture with it that will impact us here at home. Beginning on Thursday, shower and thunderstorm activity will become more enhanced offshore and over the Bahamas. Some of this stormy weather is expected to move into South Florida late Thursday. The storms will become more numerous on Friday and through the weekend. There will also be the concern for strong to severe thunderstorms along with possible localized flooding.

So regardless if tropical development occurs, or not, it will likely be a very wet and unsettled weekend for South Florida, due to all the deep tropical moisture associated with this wave.

Meanwhile, another area in the tropics to watch is far away from South Florida. It is a potent tropical wave located south of the Cabo Verde Islands and is moving westward across the Atlantic Ocean. This disturbance has a low chance of becoming better organized during the weekend.

Jennifer Correa