MIAMI (CBSMiami) – Colorado State University has released its revised hurricane forecast without making any major changes.
The forecast continues to call for a near-average season with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.
This is the same forecast CSU released in June, which calls for a near-average season.
However, CSU forecasters have revised the El Niño forecast saying it has decreased.
“The tropical Atlantic currently has near-average sea surface temperatures. We believe that the odds of a weak El Niño persisting through August-October have diminished slightly. However, neither ENSO nor tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures look particularly favorable for an active season.”
The team adds, “If El Niño were to persist, it would tend to lead to more vertical wind shear in the Caribbean extending into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they are trying to develop and intensify. Neither El Niño nor tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures look to play either a significantly enhancing or diminishing role on the 2019 season. Consequently, we are forecasting a near-average season.”
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.