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TALLAHASSEE (CBSMiami) -With just a week to go before Election Day a new poll has Gov. Rick Scott barely leading his Democratic opponent Charlie Crist.

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As reported by the CBS4’s news partner the Miami Herald, the survey by New York Times/CBS News/YouGov – conducted the week of October 16-23 – revealed the incumbent governor garnered 46 percent voter support to Crist’s 45 percent. The poll has 2 percent margin of error. Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie was included in the survey.

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In three previous NYT/CBS/YouGov polls, Scott had leads of 5, 5 and 4 points.

The survey also explained where each candidate pulled their support.

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Rick Scott is running only a point ahead of Democratic challenger Charlie Crist in this latest CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Battleground Tracker. Crist was elected governor of Florida in 2006 as a Republican, but lost in the 2010 Republican senate primary and became a Democrat in 2012. When Crist ran for governor in 2006 against Jim Davis, Crist won whites by 22 percent and split the Hispanic vote. This year, we expect almost the reverse pattern, with Crist losing whites by 18 percent, but making up most or all of the difference among Hispanics and non-whites.

In 2006, there was a medium-sized gender gap with 7 percent fewer women voting for the Republican Crist than men. We are finding a larger gender gap (almost 10 percent), but now women favor the Democratic Crist by more than men. The outcome of the race is likely to depend on Democrats’ ability to turn out their base. Democrats are less enthusiastic about the midterm elections, so this will be a difficult task for the Crist campaign. However, Crist seems to be succeeding among absentee voters.

When interviewing was conducted last week, 22 percent of all likely voters reported having voting absentee and these voters favored Crist over Scott by 48 percent to 43 percent. In-person early voting opened after the close of our survey.

(©2014 CBS Local Media, a division of CBS Radio Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. CBS4 news partner The Miami Herald contributed material for this report.)


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