Tropical Disturbance Will Bring Rain To South Florida Over Holiday Weekend

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MIAMI (CBSMiami) - The start of this year's Atlantic Hurricane Season is a little more than a week away, but forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are already keeping tabs on a tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean.

As of the 8 a.m. Special Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC now says there is a 60% chance (medium potential) the disturbance will develop into a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone over the next five days.

Over the next two days, there is zero chance of development due to high wind shear, drier air, and a lot and interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula.

The weak low pressure system is expected to lift north into the Gulf of Mexico later this week and this weekend where it move into a more favorable environment for organization.

The models are not agreement regarding the track.

The European model forecasts the disturbance moving in a more northerly direction, possibly towards Louisiana, while the American GFS model forecasts the disturbance to move a bit more towards the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and potentially towards the west coast of Florida.

Whether or not this low pressure system develops into a tropical or subtropical depression, all the deep tropical moisture is forecast to move in and increase our chance for heavy rain on Friday and into the weekend.

The eventual track of this disturbance will determine how much rain we will see. If the system consolidates and moves more to our west, then we may not see as much rain in comparison to if the disturbance if closer to us.