Reporting Tim Kephart
MIAMI (CBSMiami) – As former President Bill Clinton prepares to speak in Miami, the man he stumped for at the Democratic National Convention has opened up a six-point lead over his Republican challenger.
According to Gallup, President Barack Obama increased his lead over Mitt Romney from a 47-46 percent lead before the convention to a 50-44 percent lead after the Democratic National Convention was held last week.
Obama’s three-point convention bounce is typical of the last three elections but far less than other candidates have in the past. The biggest convention bump in Gallup polling since 1964 was in 1992 when Clinton received a 16-point boost over then-president George H.W. Bush.
Obama’s three-point bounce was better than Romney’s minus one point loss coming out of the Republican National Convention held in Tampa in August, according to Gallup.
However, convention bumps do not always forecast what will happen in the November election. For example, Michael Dukakis received a 7 point bounce in 1988 and was soundly defeated in the general election. Similarly Walter Mondale received a 9 point bounce in 1984 and barely registered against Ronald Reagan in the November election.
Obama received a four-point bump out of the 2008 DNC while Republican John McCain received a six-point boost that year, according to Gallup numbers. The only other candidate to receive a negative post-convention bounce besides Romney in 2012 is Senator John Kerry in 2004.
The key will be turnout because while Obama continues to build a lead amongst registered voters, the race is much narrower among likely voters. If Obama can’t get the turnout that he got in 2008, it could make for a long second Tuesday in November.