MIAMI (CBSMiami) – Incumbent U.S. Senator Bill Nelson was not expecting a serious challenge in 2012. But new poll results from Quinnipiac University show Nelson will have a tough haul to re-election this year.

According to the Q Poll, Nelson, a Democrat, is currently tied with the presumed Republican nominee Connie Mack.

Nelson technically leads by one percent, but that’s well within the poll’s margin of error, meaning the race is a statistical dead heat.

Nelson receives more support from independents, women, and African-American voters. Mack is currently leading amongst men and Caucasian voters.

Broken down by age, Nelson captures the under 49 vote, and ties Mack in the 65 and older bloc.

The poll found that by a 44-35 percent margin, voters though Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected to the Senate.

Still, there are 21 percent of voters who are undecided on Nelson’s re-election, which will ultimately swing the vote one way or another.