New Poll Puts Gimenez Ahead Of Robaina In Mayor’s Race

MIAMI (CBS4) A new poll conducted by CBS4 news partner The Miami Herald and released Sunday shows former Miami-Dade commissioner Carlos Gimenez with a commanding lead in the race to become Miami-Dade’s next mayor, drawing a sharp blast from the man who beat him in the primary election, former Hialeah mayor Julio Robaina.

The poll, conducted by Bendixen and Amandi International of people who said they would vote in the election, showed 50 percent would likely pick one time underdog Gimenez. Only 39 percent said they would vote for Robaina, who has been the front runner since the March 15th recall of Carlos Alvarez. However, 11 percent of the voters said they had yet to make up their minds.

During an event on Sunday, Robaina seemed unfazed by the numbers.

“The residents of the community, the voters of this community are going to make their choice.  I’m extremely happy with the early voter turn out and how we are doing with them, the people who have voted by mail, we are doing well, that’s what the poll shows,” said Robaina.

In previous polls done by the firm for The Herald, pre-election polling results for the mayoral recall and the special mayoral election were accurate predictors of election results.

The poll shows an apparent shift in voter opinion of the candidates. Robaina was the top vote-getter in the May 24th special election, with 34 percent, and Gimenez finished second with 29 percent. However, the remaining votes were split among 9 other candidates, and the big question in the runoff election is who would get those votes.

The poll seems to show Gimenez winning that fight.

Marcelo Llorente finished third in the special election, and he later endorsed Giminez. According to the poll, 51 percent of Llorente’s supporters have moved into the Gimenez camp, while just 29 percent said they’d likely vote for Robaina.

Luther Campbell, who finished 4th and wavered on who to endorse before choosing Robaina in a controversial decision tainted by allegations of fraud, has also seen a substantial numbers of his supporters moved to Gimenez, according to the poll. 50 percent said they would vote for the former commissioner, while just 28 percent said they would go with Robaina.

Voters who said they had or would vote by absentee ballot also gave the edge to Gimenez, 53-47 percent, important because in both the mayoral recall and the special election, the choices by absentee voters mirrored the overall electorate.

“I want to be the mayor of this community, I want to unite this community, you know because Miami-Dade County is a great place and we really need to come together,” said Gimenez.

It is not surprising that the Robaina campaign, locked in a bitter campaign with Giminez, reacted by attacking the poll and the newspaper.

“The intent of the paper to dissuade voter participation by already attempting to declare its candidate the winner is unfortunate but not surprising given the publication’s unbalanced and questionable coverage of the race to date,” Robaina said in a statement released Sunday. “It would be appropriate for the Gimenez campaign to report as in-kind contributions the free publicity and the cost of the poll on its behalf, but the value of both exceed campaign contribution limits.”

CBS4 I-Team Analysis Of Robaina’s Record As Hialeah’s Mayor

Robaina made no such offer when previous polls showed him as the front-runner in the race for mayor.

Robaina, who stepped down as Hialeah’s mayor to run for the county’s mayor position, has been better bankrolled and flashier than Gimenez in his campaign. During campaign speeches, he has touted his record as Hialeah’s mayor and espoused change in county politics if he is elected.

Those polled, however, questioned Robaina’s integrity and business dealings.

Robaina also raised some eyebrows when he reportedly made a deal with former rap star and mayor candidate Luther Campbell to get his endorsement.

“I have been very clear from the get go that my administration is going to be inclusive and have representation from all aspects of the county,” said Robaina.

The poll was conducted last week by Miami based Bendixen & Amandi International.

“Carlos Gimenez is poised to be the next mayor of Miami-Dade County,’’ the firm’s managing partner Fernand Amandi told the paper. “Robaina has not been able to break out of his base of support among older Hispanics and that’s why he’s not going to win.”

According to the poll Gimenez, a former county commissioner, has garnered support from various groups of voters including Hispanics under the age of 65, African Americans and non-Hispanic whites.

According to the polling numbers, Robaina received the most support from the northwest section of the county while Gimenenz has strong support east of I-95 and south of Flagler Street.

Amandi concludes that while older Hispanics are a powerful core group, Robaina’s failure to widen his appeal will lead to his loss in the June 28th election.

(©2011 CBS Local Media, a division of CBS Radio Inc. All rights reserved.  This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. CBS4 news partner <a href=”http://www.herald.com/”>The Miami Herald</a> contributed material for this report)

Comments

One Comment

  1. Dan Marino says:

    Best rule of thumb is to always vote for the guy who is getting bombarded with attack ads (Gimenez). The guy the big money is targeting is the “good guy”.

  2. Neither One says:

    Choosing between these two bums is like choosing between John Dillinger and Al Capone

  3. Delasangre says:

    Vote for Carlos Gimenez, he is the Miami dade hero..LOL

  4. Delasangre says:

    May be I will vote for Willie Colon or Neither One..they sound very experienced in politics..LMAO

  5. dgreg says:

    A bunch of Cubans voting for thieir Cuban friend. What else is new?

    1. WHAT'S GOOD FOR WHITEY IS GOOD FOR THE CUBANS says:

      Is this like a bunch of Anglos voting for their Anglo friends? Or, perhaps, a bunch of WASPS voting for their WASP friend?
      When the shoe’s on the other foot it feels a little tight, huh?

  6. Rick says:

    AFTER VOTING, WITHOUT EXCEPTION, IN EVERY LOCAL,STATE AND FEDERAL ELECTION FOR THE LAST 56 YEARS I’LL SIT THIS ONE OUT. WHAT A CHOICE– A HISPANIC FROM HIALEAH OR A HISPANIC WHO CLAIMS TO BE A REPUBLICAN BUT VOTED FOR A DEMOCRATY FOR GOVWERNOR. I AM INSULTED AND HANG UP ON ANYONE SPECIALLY A POLITICIAN WHO STARTS A PHONE CONVERSATION IN SPANISH. THIS IS AMERICA KEEP YOUR SPANISH AT HOME. I BELIEVE THAT MOST HISPANIC POLITICIANS ARE DISHONEST CROOKS AND ANY PAPER YOU OPENED IN MIAMI FOR THE LAST 30 YEARS WILL PROVE MY POINT. DON’T EVEN GO TO THE RACIST ANGLE I’M HIPANIC AND FLUENT IN SPANISH BUT SPEAK ONLY ENGLISH IN PUBLIC IN AMERICA..

  7. Richard Rodrick says:

    I had hope that llorente would have garnered more votes. Someone not from politics is what this county and this country needs. Get rid of the career politicians and vote for new citizen-legislators. Robaina is a dirt bag and we should retire him right out of the Miami political scene. Of course, the county commissioner has done nothing for Miami Dade. Quite frankly, the entire country would be better off dismantling all Board of Commissioners, doing away with State Senators and State legislators. All we need are the federal senators and congreemen, governors and mayors, PERIOD. We do not need to be wasting tax dollars on these leeches that do absolutely nothing for the money they’re getting paid. Its time to wipe away all these middle men so more money can be in the state and city coffers instead of these do nothing s pockets!!!!!

  8. lmmd says:

    robaina – sour grapes…….hahahhahaha

  9. Recallmaster says:

    No matter how much belly aching and silly racist comments people make we still have to chhose one person in this race. That is the issue at hand. Gimenez is the better man. If he sucks after a few hours, we will recall him quickly. Robaina is a crook. Voting for Robaina is like going to the Federal prison, ask an inmate for his name and then voting for him. Stay away from Robaina he is the worst of the two crooks.

  10. EOS says:

    I voted for Luke last time and will write in his name
    Advice to the other voters: Gimeniz the best choice for Miami Dade County Mayor

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