Tracking The Tropics: Disturbance In Caribbean Sea Could Make For Stormy South Florida Weekend

MIAMI (CBSMiami) - Forecasters are keeping an eye on a strong tropical wave that is producing scattered storms over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

On satellite, the wave looks better organized but for now it is a disturbance with a low chance for tropical development.

In the next two days, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center give it a 10% chance for it to strengthen because it will be tracking west-northwest into strong upper-level wind shear. The wind shear cuts through the disturbance preventing any further organization. The wave is expected to move over Hispaniola by midweek bringing locally heavy downpours and possible flooding with it.

By Friday and into the weekend, the disturbance is expected to reach the Bahamas or Florida Straits. At this point in time, the environmental conditions surrounding the tropical wave may become more conducive for tropical development. Lighter upper-level wind shear, a more moist air mass, and very warm ocean water gives the wave about a 20% for development by Friday. Whether or not development or strengthening occurs enhanced tropical moisture is expected to impact South Florida by the end of the week and possibly set the stage for a stormy weekend.

Meanwhile, far away from South Florida, an even stronger tropical wave is pushing off the coast of Africa. Although the National Hurricane Center has not highlighted this area for tropical formation yet, some forecast models are showing a developing cyclone as it tracks westward across the Atlantic the next several days. Since it is far away, there is still plenty of time to watch this one.