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MIAMI (CBSMiami) – Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson holds a 7-point lead over Republican challenger Gov. Rick Scott in the Florida Senate race, according to a new Quinnipiac poll released Monday.
The poll found Sen. Nelson holds a 51-44 percent likely voter lead just one day before the election.
This compares to a 52 – 46 percent likely voter lead for Sen. Nelson in an October 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University Poll.
Double-digit leads among independent voters and women, plus even bigger leads among black and Hispanic voters give Sen. Nelson his cushion
Nelson leads 54 – 41 percent among independent voters and 91 – 4 percent among Democrats. Republicans back Scott 94 – 4 percent
Women back the Democrat 53– 41 percent. Men are divided with 48 percent for Nelson and 47 percent for Scott
White voters back Scott 55 – 41 percent. Nelson leads 87 – 6 percent among black voters and 59 – 31 percent among Hispanic voters.
While 5 percent of Florida likely voters remain undecided, only 1 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind by tomorrow.
“Democrats Sen. Bill Nelson and Mayor Andrew Gillum have identical seven-point leads entering the final hours before Election Day in the races to be the next governor and U.S. senator from Florida,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“Sen. Nelson has a 13-point edge among independent voters. Candidates with double-digit leads among independents rarely lose.
“There is little difference in the two races. Both leaders ran up double-digit leads among women; whites went heavily for the GOP candidates while non-whites went even more so for the Democrats.”
In the Florida governor’s race, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum leads former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis 50 – 43 percent among likely voters. This compares to a 52 – 46 percent Gillum lead in the October 23 survey Q-poll.
The voters breakdown in the governor’s race closely matches the U.S. Senate race
Gillum leads 54 – 40 percent among women, as men are split 46 – 46 percent
White voters go to DeSantis 54 – 41 percent as Gillum leads 90 – 3 percent among black voters and 57 – 29 percent among Hispanic voters
Gillum leads 52 – 39 percent among independent voters and 93 – 4 percent among Democrats, as Republicans back DeSantis 93 – 4 percent.
While 6 percent of Florida likely voters remain undecided in this race, only 1 percent of voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind by tomorrow.
“Mayor Andrew Gillum and his challenger, former Congressman Ron DeSantis, are running exactly the same, 93 – 4 percent among self-identified members of each of their respective parties. But Gillum’s 13-point margin among independents is the difference in the outcome,” Brown said.
From October 29 – November 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,142 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.