Bald Predictions - High School Football Week Five
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We've come to the one-third mark of the season.
By this point of the year, we pretty much know who can do what and now is the time where week-to-week game-planning and in-game coaching adjustments become the deciding factor in most games.
Also, since this is week five, that means seniors – on teams that won't make the playoffs – only have five more weeks to suit up with their brothers. Those lucky teams that do make the postseason could have another five weeks, although a five-week playoff run is reserved for those especially lucky teams – also known as state champions.
Still, everyone needs to cherish every moment.
I hope everyone has made themselves familiar with the initial SFHSSports Top 25 Poll. The new rankings will be reflected in the Bald Predictions moving forward.
Taking a look back at week four, I feel good about the way I responded from what I thought was a horrible week three prediction performance.
Tackling week five will be no easy test as there are a handful of marquee matchups between rivals and there's a handful of big district battles too. District games can be the trickiest to pick because even though both teams know what's at stake, there's still an intangible factor that tends to favor underdogs.
What I am looking forward to this week is going to a bunch of games that should have some absolutely lit atmospheres. Yes, I said lit.
Come on folks, let's get out there and pack these stadiums this week – support high school football.
Record last week: 42-7
Season record: 171-29 (.855 Correct Pick Percentage)
45 games picked this week with three in the Bald Predictions Spotlight
(1) Central (4-0) vs. (2) Booker T. Washington (3-1)
Saturday at Traz Powell Stadium, 7 p.m.
I am genuinely looking forward to watching this game.
There's so much to get excited about in this one.
Honestly, this game represents all that is awesome about high school football in South Florida.
How often have people debated about who the "best team in Dade County" is? But, this season we already had Booker T. play St. Thomas Aquinas and American Heritage; the Rockets and Tornadoes are strapping it up this week; both Central and Booker T. will play Northwestern; Carol City and Central will play a very important district game in a few weeks; all that means we'll actually have a pretty good idea of who Dade's best squad is.
Looking at this game, two things stick out.
The first is the coaching matchup. Having Tim "Ice" Harris back on the sideline has done a lot for Booker T. Washington. He's an excellent motivator and he's learned some more tricks of the trade as his coaching journey took a turn through the college ranks for a while.
Roland Smith is a model of consistent winning. He's a "practice coach", meaning he's going to do a majority of his work, his grinding and his yelling on the practice field and will be more stoic on game day.
Because there's so much familiarity in these two coaching staffs, film study this week will be a big factor. Finding tendencies and discovering potential mismatches will be key for the team that ends up winning.
The other factor is Booker T.'s ability – or inability – to successfully and consistently run the football.
It goes without saying that Tornadoes sophomore quarterback Daniel Richardson is one of the best passers in South Florida, but Booker T. needs to find some balance in its offensive attack. If Richardson is catching the ball in the shotgun for 80-90 percent of the night, Central's defensive line will be able to pin its ears back and rush the passer with no regard of a potential run.
Ultimately, I see this game being a high-scoring affair. Especially if we get good weather conditions, there's no reason to think that both of these teams will be able to put up points – despite how talented the respective defenses are.
I think the Rockets will be able to come up with one more stop and eke out a victory in what could be an instant classic of a game.
Bald Prediction = Central wins 34-33
(T-3) Plantation American Heritage (4-0) vs. (11) Norland (3-0)
Friday at Plantation American Heritage, 7:30 p.m.
Before the season started, some would've looked at this matchup and thought it was a forgone conclusion as for how it would go.
But after watching Norland operate against district foe Central this past week, it is evident that the Vikings have a more than solid football team that is capable of standing toe-to-toe with just about anyone.
I came away very impressed with Norland, even in the loss. Junior quarterback Alec Carr showed a dual-threat ability that serves him well in coach Daryle Heidelburg's offense and I think receiver Dave Richards is an under-the-radar stud.
I continue to applaud American Heritage and head coach Pat Surtain for the way they've been able to quickly circle the wagons and right the ship after their preseason classic. That's the sign of a program that sits at the "big boy table", with the other elite programs in this area.
On paper, this game largely favors the Patriots.
Heritage's offense is running a lot more smoothly now and the Patriots' power run game with quarterback Jason Brown and running back Abraham Alce will truly challenge Norland's front seven.
Norland's offense should also find it tough to pass against this American Heritage secondary, which is one of the most talented in the country.
However, Norland was supposed to be overmatched against Central, but it more than held its own. I think the same thing happens in this one, the Vikings will fight and put on another admirable performance before getting out-shined by a talented team with an equally impressive coaching staff.
Bald Prediction = Plantation American Heritage wins 26-21
(8) Southridge (2-1) vs. (24) Carol City (1-2)
Friday at Southridge, 7:30 p.m.
Talk about a statement game.
This may be the most intriguing matchup of week five – even though it's not a traditional rivalry game nor is it a district game.
In this game you have a pair of teams that have relatively underachieved up to this point of the season. And a loss in this game will only further propel those thoughts and make the losing team question whether or not it can reach the pinnacle of its goals this season.
Southridge continues to be an enigma. The Spartans have one of the most impressive collections of talent in the country, yet they've left a bit to be desired in terms of their overall performance.
Losing to Class 4A Booker T. Washington this past week made sense to those familiar with the way South Florida high school football works – but on the surface, there's no reason why an 8A team would only put up six points in that game.
Carol City comes into this game in a much better place than it was a couple of weeks ago. After losing its first two games, the Chiefs surprised everyone not doing the "Tomahawk Chop" when they went to Lakeland and took down the Dreadnaughts for the second straight year.
I still think the matchup between these teams still favors Southridge. Carol City's offense has a tendency to stall, especially when they get away from featuring their talented duo of running backs – Camron Davis and Nayquan Wright.
Defensively, the Chiefs are golden – as they've become the "Dark Side Defense South" under the direction of former Miramar head coach Damon Cogdell.
But I think it'll be Southridge's defense that makes the game-changing or even game-clinching play and gives the Spartans a close victory in a very big game.
Bald Prediction = Southridge wins 16-14
Other Games
(T-3) St. Thomas Aquinas vs. (19) Hallandale = St. Thomas wins by 23
(5) Northwestern vs. South Dade = Northwestern wins by 20
(7) Boyd Anderson vs. Bradenton IMG Academy = IMG Academy wins by 9
(9) Flanagan vs. Western = Flanagan wins by 7
(14) Edison vs. Braddock = Edison wins by 35
(16) Chaminade-Madonna vs. (22) Monsignor Pace = Chaminade wins by 3
(17) Piper vs. Nova = Piper wins by 22
(20) Miramar vs. South Plantation = Miramar wins by 18
(23) Columbus vs. Belen Jesuit = Columbus wins by 14
(25) Champagnat vs. Somerset Academy Pines = Champagnat wins by 21
Palmer Trinity vs. Scheck Hillel = Palmer Trinity wins by 12
Miami High vs. Ferguson = Miami High wins by 4
North Miami vs. American = North Miami wins by 6
Stoneman Douglas vs. Cooper City = Douglas wins by 13
Fort Lauderdale vs. West Broward = Fort Lauderdale wins by 10
Northeast vs. Stranahan = Stranahan wins by 7
A&T Mourning vs. South Miami = South Miami wins by 12
Hialeah-Miami Lakes vs. Hialeah Gardens = Hialeah-Miami Lakes wins by 19
Sunset vs. Ronald Reagan = Reagan wins by 8
Everglades Prep vs. Gulliver Prep = Gulliver Prep wins by 3
Somerset Academy Silver Palms vs. Westminster Christian = Westminster Christian wins by 2
International School of Broward vs. Buford (Ga.) = Buford wins by 14
Taravella vs. Coral Glades = Taravella wins by 7
Deerfield Beach vs. Coral Springs = Deerfield Beach wins by 16
Cypress Bay vs. Plantation = Cypress Bay wins by 12
Everglades vs. Hollywood Hills = Hollywood Hills wins by 7
Miami Jackson vs. Jacksonville Bolles = Bolles wins by 14
University School vs. Delray Beach Village Academy = University School wins by 7
Coral Springs Charter vs. Key West = Key West wins by 21
Pompano Beach vs. North Broward Prep = North Broward Prep wins by 28
Westminster Academy vs. Riviera Beach Inlet Grove = Westminster Academy wins by 33
Calvary Christian vs. Archbishop McCarthy = Archbishop McCarthy wins by 2
Miami Beach vs. Naples Golden Gate = Miami Beach wins by 9
Coral Reef vs. Venice (Fl.) = Venice wins by 20
Homestead vs. Coral Park = Homestead wins by 2
Barbara Goleman vs. Westland Hialeah = Goleman wins by 42
Killian vs. Varela = Killian wins by 8
Mater Academy vs. Doral Academy = Doral Academy wins by 5
Palm Beach Benjamin School vs. Ransom Everglades = Benjamin wins by 14
Palm Beach Kings Academy vs. Miami Country Day = Kings Academy wins by 30
Pine Crest vs. Florida Christian = Pine Crest wins by 17
