By Abraham Gutierrez 

Hoping to rain on the Miami Dolphins parade, the Houston Texans invade Sun Life Stadium with plenty to feel good about entering their Week 7 matchup. That’s because if recent ATS (head-to-head) statistics are correct, the Texans are destined to cover the spread one way or the other.

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Before getting into the meat and potatoes of this story, it’s worth noting that NFL Week 7 oddsmakers have the Dolphins [-4.5] listed as four-and-a-half point favorites versus a Texans [+4.5] team that will enjoy a cushion of a field goal and a safety. Also necessary to mention is the OVER/UNDER, which at the present time tallies a combined 48 points, and straight-up betting lines, which look like this: Houston [+177] vs. Miami [-210].

Texans vs. Dolphins Head-to-Head ATS Stats

Specifically, there are five statistical figures everyone should consider prior to deciding what side to put money on. First, there’s the fact that Houston is currently 5-2 in its last seven games against Miami. In addition, the road team is 4-1 the last five times they’ve met, and finally, the underdog is also 5-2 whenever these intraconference rivals have collided.

Dolphins Recent ATS Stats (Week 7)

Unfortunately for the tenths of thousands of Miamians that will fill up Sun Life Stadium on Sunday, almost every ATS statistic available indicates this game is “no bueno” for the Fins. As a matter of fact, there isn’t a single (recent) ATS trend that supports a Dolphins cover at -4.5, which is quite alarming.

Gathering from a number of ATS statistics, Dan Campbell’s bunch tends to follow straight-up wins of 14 of more points with a loss (2-5 in the last 7), have played down to the level of their competition at home (13-37-1), and have not played well in Week 7s (2-7 in the last nine Week 7 games).

As if all that weren’t alarming enough, Miami is also 2-8 in its last 10 games overall, 1-7 against the AFC, 0-5 after scoring more than 30 points the week prior, and 1-4 after a straight-up win, against teams with losing records, and after accumulating more than 350 total yards.

Texans Recent ATS Stats (Week 7)

In contrast, everything looks great for those betting on the Texans as [+4.5] road underdogs. For starters, this team is 4-1 versus teams with a losing record, 4-1-1 in the last six games after tallying more than 350 total yards and, unlike Miami, love playing in Week 7 games, posting a record of 3-1-1 in those instances.

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But that’s not where the good news ends for a pro-Houston ATS bet in Week 7. In addition to the aforementioned statistics, the Texans are also 5-2 after accumulating more than 250 passing yards and 9-4-1 after scoring 30 points or more.

NFL Week 7 Betting Analysis Breakdown

In spite of all the aforementioned warning signs, bettors seem to believe the Dolphins have turned the corner with Coach Campbell at the helm. Even though Miami is only 2-3-0 against the spread this season, it has the backing of the betting population. As of Thursday morning, most folks believe the Fins will finally break into the win column at home with the Texans in town.

NFL Week 7 betting ATS analysis dictates that 56 percent of bettors are on board with the Dolphins beating Houston by a minimum of five points. For those counting, that’s 519 wagers that have been registered in favor of a home team cover heading into this one. In turn, naysayers, or those who prefer investing on the underdogs in this matchup account for only 41 percent of the action, which tallies 409 people.

Why Dolphins Will Cover Spread

As good as all the pro-Texans statistics above seem, there are some mathematical numbers that could chance most people’s minds prior to kickoff. With a 31-20 win over Jacksonville last week, Houston recorded its second win of the season – and the second ATS cover on the year (2-4-0 ATS in 2015).

ATS stats show that this team come out flat following those wins, as they’ve failed to follow up on straight up wins, by posting a record of 1-4-1, and have followed an ATS cover by dropping 15 of their last 21 games – winning five and earning a draw in the other.

Another area for concern for Texans fans is that whenever this team allowed more than 250 passing yards, they’ve won only two of their next 8 games the following week. The same can be said for when Houston’s “D” surrenders more than 350 total yards, and allows less than 9-0 rushing yards, for which they’ve earned 1-4 and 1-4-1 records respectively.

2015 NFL Week 7 Predictions: Miami Dolphins [-4.5] 

Free ATS NFL Predictions (Week 7):

  • San Francisco 49ers [+5]
  • Buffalo Bills [-5]
  • St. Louis Rams [-5]
  • Kansas City Chiefs [+2.5]
  • Miami Dolphins [-4.5]
  • New York Jets [+9.5]
  • Detroit Lions [+2.5]
  • Atlanta Falcons [-4]
  • New Orleans Saints [+4]
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers [+4]
  • Oakland Raiders [+6]
  • New York Giants [-6]
  • Philadelphia Eagles [+3]
  • Baltimore Ravens [+7.5]
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Abe Gutierrez’s (Twitter: @GutierrezAbe) passion led him to ditch law school journey in order to launch his own publishing company. His expertise make him a valued addition to Examiner.com, AXS.com and the CBS-Sports family. Some of his work can be found on CBS-Miami (Dolphins), CBS-LosAngeles (Chargers), CBS-BayArea (Raiders), CBS-NewYork (NY Jets), CBS-TampaBay (Buccaneers), AXS.com, Examiner.com and other online publications.