What’s that crackling sound you hear?
According to Kurt Bullard’s projection, which is based on Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value statistic that “measures individual talent,” your Miami Dolphins are winning the American Football Conference this season.
The formula considers what Bullard terms the core of a team — “QB, RB, 2 WR, TE, Top 2 OL, the Top-4 ‘Front Seven’ defensive players, and the Top-2 players from the secondary.”
And it’s not pure fluff either because he ran a “regression analysis” where he found the “Aggregated AV was indeed significant with a T-stat of 8.57.” Not that I have any inclination of what a “T-stat” is because I barely paid attention in stat class. Regardless, a guy from Harvard has the Dolphins winning the AFC and below are his playoff odds for the Top 10.
The Patriots have Brady, the Broncos have Manning, but the Dolphins have Bullard.
1. Seattle Seahawks: 95 percent chance of making the playoffs
2. Green Bay Packers: 93 percent
3. Miami Dolphins: 77 percent
4. Kansas City Chiefs: 66 percent
5. New England Patriots: 62 percent
6. Denver Broncos: 62 percent
7. Detroit Lions: 53 percent
8. New York Jets: 56 percent
9. Indianapolis Colts: 62 percent
10. Buffalo Bills: 43 percent
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