By Abraham Gutierrez
When the Miami Dolphins and the Denver Broncos take the field on Sunday afternoon in the Mile High City, most people wagering against the spread will be in for a surprising finish, this according to ATS trends and other NFL Week 12 betting statistics. Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado, will be the site for this phenomenal intraconference showdown.
Opening kickoff is scheduled for Sunday at 4:25 p.m. Eastern Time, and Dolphins and Broncos fans alike can catch all the action live on CBS Sports (CBS-4 in Miami).
Setting the table for a great contest, NFL Week 12 point spreads have Peyton Manning and Denver favored by just under a touchdown and a safety [-7½], while Ryan Tannehill and Miami will enjoy a seven-and-a-half [+7½] cushion this week on the road.
Additional NFL Week 12 odds dictate that the OVER/UNDER for this contest is set at a combined total of 50 points, and that straight-up money lines will look like this: (6-4) Dolphins [+285] vs. (7-3) Broncos [-370]. So, how can NFL oddsmakers be off in listing Denver as an eight-point likely victor versus Miami this week?
The first ATS statistic worth noting is the fact that, thus far in this 2014 NFL campaign, Joe Philbin’s team has proven to be a better ATS choice than John Fox’s squad. With 10 games in the books, the Fins match their season record of 6-4-0 against the spread, while the mighty Broncos are a mere .500 club in the betting world, sporting a 5-5-0 mark.
And while most NFL bettors would find those numbers anything but shocking, the latest head-to-head statistics are sure to raise some eyebrows within the community. To say that the Fins have been nearly perfect (against the spread) versus the Broncos in their most recent encounters is not only an inflammatory statement, but more importantly, one that is 100 percent true.
For example, Miami comes into this Week 12 encounter with a 4-0 ATS record in its last five games played in Denver. Not only that, but the Dolphins are also 6-1 in their last head-to-head clashes with the defending American Football Conference champions.
Furthermore, other ATS figures suggest that the fact that NFL oddsmakers are listing the Dolphins as road underdogs plays right into their favor. Simply arithmetic shows that, not only are the underdogs is 4-1 in the last five (head-to-head) meetings, but that the road team is also 4-1 during that span.
Why will most NFL bettors be shocked when the game clock at Sports Authority Field at Mile High hits triple-zeros?
As of Wednesday morning, a whopping 66 percent of bettors believe that the Denver Broncos are best equipped to cover the [-7½] point spread, rather than the Miami Dolphins [+7½], who only account for 34 percent of the action.
This is also expected to be a high scoring affair, other data shows, evident by the fact that 63 percent of the population has these teams eclipsing the 50-point mark, which certainly favors Denver’s style. In contrast, only 37 percent of bettors foresee this being more of a defensive struggle, which many would say would favor the road team in this instance.
However, there are some discrepancies that ATS statistics do not show – with the biggest one being that the last time these teams played was with Tim Tebow under center (2011). This means that all of the aforementioned ATS trends in their head-to-head series took place prior to the Manning era.
Therefore, with No.18 under center, the fact that most people are betting on the Broncos to cover should come as no surprise, because Denver is clearly the better team on paper, right? For what it’s worth, the Miami Dolphins actually match up very well and are more balanced than this year’s version of the Denver Broncos.
With (defensive) yards allowed, (offensive) time of possession, special teams play and penalties on their favor, Miami claims the matchup edge over a Broncos side that’s only outperformed in offensive categories such as: points per game, yards gained and Red Zone efficiency.
Additional Miami Dolphins ATS Trends To Consider:
- Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 12.
- Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against AFC foes.
- Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Dolphins are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 road games against teams with winning home records.
Additional Denver Broncos ATS Trends To Consider:
- Broncos are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight-up loss.
- Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss.
- Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
- Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Broncos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Broncos are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 12.
For more Dolphins news and updates, visit Dolphins Central.
Abe Gutierrez is a criminal justice admin whose love for sports led him to become a writer and editor. His expertise make him a valued addition to Examiner.com and its partners. His work can be found on Examiner.com. .