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MIAMI (CBSMiami) – Although our Hurricane Season doesn’t officially start until June 1st, the CBS4 Weather team is closely monitoring a disturbance in the tropics.

There is a broad low surface low just east of Belize that is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the Northwestern Caribbean across Cuba into the Florida peninsula.

In the 8 a.m. tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center said there was a low potential of cyclone or sub-tropical cyclone development over the next two days.

While strong upper-level winds and drier air aloft should help to limit organization the next couple of days, some gradual development is possible later this week as this area lifts northward into the Central or Eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a medium potential (40% chance) of formation over the next five days according to the National Hurricane Center. Some models forecast the disturbance moving in the general direction of Louisiana. While other models forecast it could move more towards Tampa.

There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the track.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible for Cuba and Cayman Islands over the next several days. And as we head into Thursday and the holiday weekend, South Florida will see a better chance of heavy rain due to all the deep tropical moisture associated with this system. The amount of rain we see will all depend on the eventual track of this disturbance.

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