MIAMI (CBSMiami/NSF) – We could be in for a busier than usual hurricane season this year.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has released its 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook. It’s calling for 11-17 named storms with 5-9 hurricanes, 2-4 of which major with wind over 111 mph.
A typical, or normal, hurricane season would see 11 named storms of which seven would be hurricanes and two would be major hurricanes.
The reasoning behind the above normal to near normal hurricane season forecast is the lack of any significant El Nino or La Nina event in the Pacific which can either enhance or diminish tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic.
The ocean water temperature is at, or slightly above, normal over the main development region for Atlantic storms. Wind shear, something that can diminish storm development, is expected to be near or slightly weaker than average.
With these factors in place, the outlook calls for a 70 percent probability of a slightly above average Atlantic Hurricane Season.
The main thing to remember is no matter how many storms are predicted it only takes one storm making landfall to cause major disruptions. No matter what the forecast you should always be preparing for that one storm every single year.
The below average hurricane season of 1992 is a perfect example of this. With only four hurricanes and one major hurricane, it will go down in history as a below average season, even though it is remembered for Hurricane Andrew, the one major hurricane that season.