Study: Zika Will Burn Itself Out In 3 Years
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MIAMI (CBSMiami) -- The Zika epidemic plaguing Latin America and threatening to spread in he U.S. may burn itself out over the next three years, according to British researchers.
Scientists at London's Imperial College said that while the mosquito-borne or sexually transmitted virus cannot be contained with existing control measures, cases of those infected will diminish.
The research - published in the Journal of Science - suggests it would end within those years due to the fact that people are not likely to be infected with Zika twice.
"The current explosive epidemic will burn itself out due to a phenomenon called herd immunity. Because the virus is unable to infect the same person twice - thanks to the immune system generating antibodies to kill it - the epidemic reaches a stage where there are too few people left to infect for transmission to be sustained," said study author Professor Neil Ferguson.
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As part of the study, researchers put together all the existing data on Zika transmission across Latin America and compared it with viruses such as dengue. From there, they built a mathematical model to represent the current situation and future transmission of the virus.
While the possible end of the epidemic is positive, the research raises questions about whether it's possible to develop a vaccine in time.
"If our projections are correct, cases will have dropped substantially by the end of next year, if not sooner. This means by the time we have vaccines ready to be tested, there may not be enough cases of Zika in the community to test if the vaccine works," said Ferguson.
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Despite that, Ferguson says more research is desperately needed to fully understand the extent at which Zika is transmitted and how many people around the globe have been infected.
"There are currently more questions surrounding Zika than answers - and only through a coordinated global research effort will we find the answers we desperately need," said Ferguson.
The team predicts the next large-scale epidemic is unlikely to come about for at least another ten years but some smaller outbreaks could be possible.
Click here for more information on the Zika virus.
