FiveThirtyEight Projects Miami Heat's Record at 38-44
The Miami Heat will finish the 2015-16 season with 38 wins (six games under .500), according to a projection by the analytics-driven site FiveThirtyEight.
The ESPN-owned site used a projection model called CARMELO, which "identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player's future might look like."
This model does NOT like the Heat's core, pegging Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh as mere "rotation players" and Goran Dragic an "average starter."
Last year's team won 37 games with their core getting devoured by the injury bug.
| Games Missed Last Season | |
| Josh McRoberts | 65 |
| Chris Bosh | 38 |
| Dwyane Wade | 20 |
That's three of the team's top six players missing 123 games combined. This also doesn't factor in breakout star Hassan Whiteside appearing in just 48 games after joining the team midseason.
The roster only improved in the offseason, drafting Justise Winslow while adding Gerald Green and Amare Stoudemire in free agency.
Meanwhile Vegas projects the Heat to win somewhere between 46 and 48 games depending on the sportsbook. While advanced analytics have been sweeping through the NBA over the last decade, they're still highly questionable in many areas with defense being among them. It's also nearly impossible to factor in intangibles like chemistry.
Take the 38-win projection with a chug of salt.
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