Chargers Vs. Dolphins 2014: NFL Odds, ATS Trends, Consensus & Free NFL Week 9 Picks
By Abraham Gutierrez
SunLife Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, will be the site for an interconference showdown between the (4-3) Miami Dolphins and the (5-3) San Diego Chargers, and if Las Vegas' NFL oddsmakers are correct, the Fins should escape with the slimmest of margins come Sunday afternoon.
According to NFL Week 9 point spreads, Ryan Tannehill and company are listed as favorites by a safety (-2) over Philip Rivers and the Bolts (+2) in this one. The OVER/UNDER tallies a combined 44 points and straight-up betting lines go as follows: Chargers (+115) vs. Dolphins (-135).
But how well does Miami really matchup against San Diego in terms of its chances to yield a winning ATS (against-the-spread) bet in this pivotal game? Based on a surmountable collection of statistical data available, there are a number of ways in which this game could play out, but there are also many similarities between these clubs.
For starters, it’s important to take a look at how each team has performed in ATS scenarios thus far this year. Coincidentally, the Chargers and Dolphins sport identical ATS and wins-losses records eight weeks into the 2014 NFL campaign.
This means that San Diego comes into Week 9 at 5-3 overall and against the spread, while Miami’s 4-3 mark applies against the spread as well as “straight up”. Nevertheless, that’s not where the similarities end, as ATS trends also point to this being a very close contest.
For the San Diego Chargers, there aren’t too many blemishes to point to in terms of ATS trends to consider for this week’s showdown with the Fins.
The Bolts are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record, they’re 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight-up loss.
For the Miami Dolphins, their ATS trends are also very solid heading into what has to be a must-win considering their brutal November NFL schedule.
Much like in the case of the Chargers, there are many positives to point to including the fact that the Fins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with winning road records, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on grass, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Week 9 games and after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, and finally, are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
However, there are a few ATS trends that could help determine which team is best equipped to cover the spread in this one. In terms of how these teams have performed against one another in the ATS department, one would find that the Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings, and that the Chargers are a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Dolphins.
With that said, are these final ATS figures enough to help tilt the scales in favor of a Dolphins ATS cover? According to the latest General Consensus Analysis, the betting population isn’t giving the Fins much of chance despite being at home.
Just a few days removed from kickoff, an eye-popping 70 percent of the action has been for the Chargers to cover the spread, while the Dolphins account for only 30 percent of all wagers.
Will NFL oddsmakers prove to be on the money, or will the betting population have the last laugh? Opening kickoff for this AFC West vs. AFC East clash is scheduled for 1 p.m. Eastern Time and it will be broadcast live on CBS Sports (CBS4-Miami).
CBS Sports’ NFL Week 9 Free ATS Picks: San Diego Chargers +2
For more Dolphins news and updates, visit Dolphins Central.
Abe Gutierrez is a criminal justice admin whose love for sports led him to become a writer and editor. His expertise make him a valued addition to Examiner.com and its partners. His work can be found on Examiner.com. .
