Reporting Tim Kephart
Legislative Session Coverage
MIAMI (CBSMiami) – Florida is once again expected to be a key swing state in the 2012 presidential election and the latest Rasmussen Reports poll has the race as a dead heat.
According to Rasmussen’s poll, the latest telephone survey of likely voters gave Republican challenger Mitt Romney a 46-45 percent lead in the Sunshine State. Another five percent of voters prefer a different candidate and four percent are undecided.
But, as with nearly every poll being released lately, the lead is well within the poll’s margin of error, meaning the race is a statistical tie and could go either way.
Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll, which isn’t as reliable, currently has the race with Romney capturing 47 percent of the vote to Obama’s 44 percent of the vote. Overall, Rasmussen puts the race right now for the Electoral College at 247 votes for Obama and 191 votes for Romney.
A total of 270 Electoral College votes are needed to win the presidency.
According to Talkingpointsmemo.com’s Poll tracker Obama leads nationally by 0.3 points. TPM.com’s averages found Obama is leading in the swing states of Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin and Ohio.
RealClearPolitics found in its averaging of polls that Obama currently leads by 1.2 percent, again, well within the margin of error. Intrade, which places odds on the election, currently has Obama at 56.2 percent likelihood of winning to Mitt Romney’s 41.9 percent of winning.
According to RealClearPolitics, the last time it’s average found Romney ahead was on October 11, 2011.